Orient Securities (600958): Enlarging asset management capabilities Β Advantages Wealth management Enhance Α capabilities

Orient Securities (600958): Enlarging asset management capabilities Β Advantages Wealth management Enhance Α capabilities

Positive feedback fermentation, and overall business growth.

In the first quarter of 2019, the company realized a net profit of 1.3 billion (YoY + 191%), operating income of 4.1 billion (YoY + 109%), and EPS 0.

18 yuan / share, ROE 2.

41% (+ 1% year-on-year.

58pt), adjusted leverage ratio 2.

85 times.

Orient Securities has an investment transaction and asset management expertise. In Q1, where capital efficiency has been greatly improved, the company seized the positive feedback from fully expanding the market to achieve double growth in profits and revenue.

2019Q1 Orient Securities investment income, asset management business, brokerage business, investment banking business, revenue income contributed 39% (+8 points YoY) / 10% 杭州桑拿 (32 points YoY) / 9% (11 Points YoY) / 7% ((YoY)-6pt) / 5% (YoY + 28pt).

Investment elasticity amplifies the results of the bull market.

In 2018, Oriental Securities’ proprietary trading business accounted for 38% of total assets, a year-on-year increase of + 6pt; however, the stock + fund accounted for only 8%, YoY-13pt, the high flexibility of equity ratio, and the high proportion of proprietary businessRatio, which gives Orient Securities a high beta.

Since this year, market sentiment has heated up. In the first quarter of 2019, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 24%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index rose 37%, and the GEM Index rose 35%.

Orient Securities seized business opportunities and estimated a total investment income of 1.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 159%.

Thoroughly, the company steadily promoted the innovative transformation of the FICC business, rapidly developed the commodity business, actively carried out foreign exchange business, and constantly improved the business model of sales transactions.

With the bottom of the economy, financial supply-side reforms being promoted, and the long-term rights and interests being created, Oriental Securities will continue to give play to its investment advantages and expand positive market feedback.

The credit business continued to adjust its structure, and interest margins helped increase net income.

Benefiting from market sentiment, the company’s dual-finance business rapidly improved, and the amount of capital raised was 121 trillion at the end of the reporting period, an increase of 18% earlier.

However, the stock pledge business is still cautious. Wind data show that the company’s new stock pledge in the first quarter of 2019 was 24.24 million yuan, -99% year-on-year; at the same time, the accrual of credit impairment losses increased.

Based on the above, the company’s interest income of 1.5 billion yuan, after restatement -4% per year.

However, benefiting from quality control and rising interest margin, the company’s net interest income reached 1.

700 million per year after restatement + 17%.

The institutional client structure is stable, and the brokerage and asset management business is slightly shortened.

The brokerage business is dominated by institutional clients (77% of the brokerage agency clients in 2018), the transaction flexibility is small, and the commission confirmation time is different, so the brokerage business income was 400 million US dollars, a slight decrease of 6%.

The asset management business cooled down and realized a net income of 400 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 52%; considering the long-term advantages of the company’s asset management business, it is committed to achieving repair and growth in the later stage.

Improve the institutional business chain and acquire all equity of Oriental Citi.

The company is currently pursuing the acquisition of Oriental Citi 33, held by Citi Asia.

33% equity, the company will wholly-owned Oriental Citi after the completion of the acquisition.

It is reported that Oriental Citi achieved 1 billion IPOs in 2019Q1 (0 in 2018Q1), refinancing 7 billion (YoY + 134%), and debt financing of 15.2 billion (YoY + 833%).

After a wholly-owned holding of Oriental Citi, it will improve and optimize the company’s operating structure, improve operating efficiency and performance stability.

Enjoy β increase α, maintain “Recommended” rating.

As an outstanding leader in the transformation of big asset management, as a trading partner with investment flexibility, Orient Securities will benefit from the β market in the long bull market; at the same time, the company will actively deploy wealth management, enhance the advantages of investment banks, and further improve its operational stabilityAlpha returns.

The company is expected to have PB1 in 2019.

5 times, maintaining the “recommended” level.

Risk Warning: The policy advances less than expected, and the market fluctuates greatly.

Dashenlin (603233) M & A Incident Review: Mergers and Acquisitions Huaxing cut into the Hebei market.

Dashenlin (603233) M & A Incident Review: Mergers and Acquisitions Huaxing cut into the Hebei market.

Event: The company announced that it acquired a 46% stake in Baoshi Shengshi Huaxing (hereinafter referred to as the “subject”) with a transaction amount of 7424.

50,000 yuan.

If the successful completion of the merger and acquisition will achieve the holding of the target (holding a total of 65% equity), the company will officially enter the Hebei market.

Opinions: Use high-quality mergers and acquisitions to cut into the Hebei market and continue to promote the “north” expansion. We believe that the target is a high-quality target for the following reasons: 1) Regional leading companies: The target is Baoding’s pharmaceutical retail market scale and brand influence.One, as of the end of 18, it has 39 stores, located in the urban area of Baoding and surrounding areas, and is second in size only to Chongde Pharmacy and Baobei Pharmaceutical Chain; 2) Large single store scale: the annual revenue of the single store in 17 yearsAs high as 6.12 million yuan (excluding tax), which is much higher than the industry’s average annual single-store revenue of 840,000 yuan, indicating that the target stores are mainly large stores in crowded areas such as hospitals and commercial centers, and the proportion of prescription drug sales is also large., In line with the advantages of future card prescription outflows (the annual revenue of the target 18 single-stores dropped to 4.09 million yuan, mainly because the number of new stores in 19 reached 19, a gradual increase of 95%, which significantly reduced the average single-store size); 3) Strong profitability: The 17-year net interest rate of the target company is 5.

8%, which is close to the listed pharmacy chains. Considering the large proportion of low-margin prescription drugs in large stores, the net margin level is already excellent (the target 18-year net margin has dropped to 1.

7% is mainly due to the early interruption of new stores in 18 years, not due to shifting business levels).

The company borrowed the high-quality target to cut into the Hebei market, and further opened up room for growth.

The target PS is estimated to drop to zero.

87x, indicating that the rational period of the M & A market may have arrived, considering that the target 18-year tax-included income has reached 1.

8.5 billion, valued at 1 based on the underlying 100% equity.

6.1 billion calculations, the target 18-year PS is 0.

87x, about 18 years in the M & A market1.

5x or even 2.

The estimated level of PS of 0x, this acquisition is estimated to have dropped significantly.

Our preliminary judgments are: 1) Fang Gaoji Medical, the largest pharmacy merger and acquisition capital in the primary market, has suspended the acquisition of chain pharmacies at the end of 18 and moved to the integration stage of the pharmacy.The 厦门夜网 reorganization of policies such as registration of pharmacists, strict investigation of pharmacy medical insurance and theft of pharmacy, the standardization of the pharmacy market has significantly accelerated, the pressure on small and medium-sized chain operations has increased sharply, and the sales and urgency are expected to have increased significantly.

We believe that this acquisition or heralds the expansion of the rationality period of the M & A market, further implementation of the standardization policy of portable pharmacies, and the future company or other listed chain pharmacies will tend to integrate rapidly under a reasonable merger and acquisition scale.

The main 19 years of the target’s main contribution to consolidated revenue, and the non-consolidated profit contribution is not the main focus. Considering that the target is only the third largest in the pharmacy market in Baoding, and currently there are no other national / provincial large-scale pharmacy chain leaders in Baoding.Share (such as Hebei Xinxing Pharmacy affiliated to Yifeng, Shenwei Pharmacy, Huajing Pharmacy Chain, etc.), we judge that the company’s next business focus in Baoding is to expand as soon as possible and replace the first market share in Baoding toIt is easy to cope with the competition of other large drugstore leaders, so we believe that the target 19 years will mainly contribute to consolidated revenue, but not contribute to consolidated profits.

Assuming 19 new target stores are still built in 19 years, it is estimated that the non-tax revenue in 19 years can increase by 30% to 2.

07 billion, if consolidated for half a year in 19 years, it is expected to contribute 19 years of revenue growth of about 1.

2pp.

Mergers and acquisitions Huahuaxing cut into the Hebei market, the rationality period of the mergers and acquisitions market may have arrived. Considering the uncertainty of mergers and acquisitions delivery, we maintain the company 18?
The EPS for 20 years is 1.

33/1.

54/1.

82 yuan, the current price corresponds to 18?
20PE is 33/29/24 times.

This merger verifies our Air Force report’s judgment that the company has the potential to resist mergers and acquisitions. Considering that the company’s application for the issuance of convertible bonds has been approved by the Securities and Futures Commission on January 16, 19 (the scale is US $ 1 billion), we still maintain the company’s performanceThe judgment that the growth rate is expected to continue to accelerate, and the company will continue to accelerate the merger and acquisition integration with rational estimates in the subsequent continuous breakthrough opportunities.

Maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk Warning: The performance of M & A pharmacies is not up to expectations; the extension speed of new openings and M & A is not up to expectations.

Op Lighting (603515): Going further through the cycle of the lighting industry

Op Lighting (603515): Going further through the cycle of the lighting industry

The results for the first quarter of 2018 and 19 were in line with the expected 2018 operating income of 80.

0 million yuan, an increase of 15 in ten years.

0%; net profit attributable to parent company 8.

9.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 32.

0%.

Corresponds to 4Q18 operating income 24.

200 million, up 13 in ten years.

3%; net profit attributable to parent company3.

29 ppm, an increase of 24 in ten years.

0%.

Dividends for 2018 are 0.

4 yuan / share, the dividend rate is 33.

63%.

Operating income for the first quarter of 19 16.

600 million, up 12 in ten years.

2%; net profit attributable to parent company is 0.

86 ‰, rising 22 per year.

8%.

Financial analysis in 2018: 1) Gross profit margin has decreased year by year 4.

1ppt, mainly due to online sales price competition and the increase in the proportion of commercial lighting.

Gross profit margin was low in 4Q18 and rebounded in 1Q19.

2) Government subsidies 1.

0 million yuan, because the equity investment increased by 67.69 million yuan.

However, most government subsidies are based on company earnings, and large subsidies are still expected in 2019.

3) R & D expenses 3.

200 million, accounting for 4% of revenue.

0%, ten years +43.

5%, the growth is significantly higher than income growth.

4) Cash in hand (monetary 四川耍耍网 funds + wealth management) 4 billion US dollars, ten years + 10%.

Business analysis: 1) Commercial lighting is growing rapidly, especially overseas revenue6.

0 million yuan, an increase of 39 in ten years.

9%.

2) The light source business has grown steadily, and the online cost-effective sales strategy has seized market share.

3) The growth trend of home lighting is mainly due to the adverse impact of the decoration market demand on the post-real estate cycle.

4) Benefiting from the expansion of categories, continued to enrich the categories of art switches, plugs and other plug-ins, the electrical business grew steadily.

In 2018, the company set up the electrical converter business unit, and the company’s internal merger was promoted.

5) Intelligent lighting products (including intelligent control modules) account for over 20%.

The development trend is affected by the real estate post-cycle. It is expected that the growth rate of home lighting business will gradually improve starting from the second half of the year.The company’s future key strategy: enhance the brand image and build a smart lighting ecosystem.

Earnings forecast remains EPS forecast for 2019/201.

39/1.

71 yuan.

Estimates and recommendations maintain recommended levels.

After considering the improvement of the real estate post-cycle industry evaluation, the target price is raised by 7% to 44.

50 yuan, corresponding to 32x / 26x 2019 / 20e P / E, compared with the current breakthrough breakthrough space of 24%.

The company currently corresponds to 26x / 21x 2019 / 20e P / E.

Risk Market competition risks. The risk of home lighting being affected by fluctuations in real estate sales.

Semir Clothing (002563): Children’s clothing leader has obvious advantages, leisure reform is steadily advancing

Semir Clothing (002563): Children’s clothing leader has obvious advantages, leisure reform is steadily advancing

The performance of the main business in the weak market environment exceeded expectations. Product strength improvement / supply chain efficiency / channel structure optimization and orderly expansion drove 18 years of main business revenue growth of 24%. Among them, children’s clothing and casual wear revenue increased by 27% and 21% respectively.

Excluding the impact of consolidation, the net profit realized by the main business is expected to be 1.5 billion +, an annual increase of 35%.

Kidiliz’s consolidated income and net profit were 7, respectively.

9.5 billion and -35.55 million.

Looking forward to 19 years, under the continuous improvement of Semima casual wear operation, it is expected to maintain stable operation.

While maintaining absolute leading height, Balla and TCP, Kidiliz play complementary effects in brand positioning and customer base, and produce synergistic effects in product development, international market operations and global procurement.

It is expected that the performance of the main business in 19 years will still maintain a double-digit growth, but considering that Kidiliz has not yet turned losses, it is expected that 佛山桑拿网 the growth of net profit will be worse than the income.

The current market value is 2.93 million yuan, corresponding to 19PE15.

6X, estimated not high, maintain “strongly recommended-A” grade.

In 18 years, the main business grew faster than expected, and the negative goodwill generated by Kidiliz caused an increase in non-operating income and increased profit elasticity.

In 2018, the company achieved total operating income of 157.

190,000 yuan, an increase of 30 in ten years.

71%; operating profit and net profit attributable to mothers are 20 respectively.

80 and 16.

94 million, an increase of 37 each year.

65% and 48.

83%; realized profit of 0.

63 yuan.

The distribution plan is distributed for every 10 shares 3.
.

5 yuan (including tax).

Among them, the main business income of Semir in 18 years increased by 24% to 14.9 billion US dollars, achieving a net profit of 15.

370,000 yuan, an increase of 35 in ten years.

06%.

Kidiliz’s consolidated income scale is 7.

95 ppm with an impact on net profit of 1.

5.7 billion (consolidated net profit was -35.55 million yuan, and the consolidated income was 1.

9.3 billion negative goodwill).

By quarter, affected by the consolidation, 18Q4 revenue increased 49 year-on-year.

47% to 59.

550,000 yuan, the operating profit increases by 201.

18% to 3.

310,000 yuan, net profit attributable to mother increased by 235.

16% to 4.

2.2 billion.

Driven by the enhancement of product power / supply chain efficiency / channel structure optimization and orderly expansion, the main industry’s revenue growth exceeded expectations. The co-location of Kidiliz in October pulled the balance sheet, accounting for 31% of total revenue growth.

1) By brand: 18 years of main business income increased 24% to 149 per year.

2.4 billion.
Among them, the top of the children’s clothing Para brand is solid, and the revenue in 18 years has increased by 27.
03% to 80.

3 billion, accounting for 53.

81%, the number of stores increased by 498 to 5293, the same-store growth was gradually double growth; casual wear business revenue in weak urban environments increased by 20.

54% to 67.

92 million, a net increase of 202 stores to 3830, the same double-digit growth is expected.

Kidiliz consolidated in October 18, and the consolidated income was 7.

950,000 yuan, net profit 35.55 million yuan.

2) Sub-channels: Long-term main business direct operating income will increase by 20 per year.

37% to 17.

6.2 billion, of which direct sales increased by 84 to 763.

Funding revenue of the fundamental business has increased by 22 per year.

03% to 89.

9.6 billion, of which a net increase of 616 franchise stores to 8,360.

The initial e-commerce business income has increased by 30 per year.

75% to 40.

8.1 billion.

From the date of consolidation, Kidiliz’s direct, franchise, affiliate, and e-commerce revenue contributions have been 3 respectively.

2.3 billion, 3.

2.2 billion, 1.

04 trillion, 27.83 million yuan.

By the end of 2018, the number of directly operated / joined / affiliated stores was 455/47/280.

The increase in the gross profit margin of the main business was greater than the increase in the expense ratio, and the negative goodwill generated by Kidiliz led to an increase in non-operating income and improved profit elasticity.

1) Gross profit margin increased significantly: The gross profit margin of the apparel industry increased 4.

18pct to 39.

95%, of which the gross profit margin of casual wear increased by 7.

67 points to 36.

98%, children’s clothing business gross margin increased by 0.

71pct to 42.

twenty three%.

The increase in casual apparel gross profit was mainly due to the increase in resale, the increase in the proportion of regular-price products sold offline, the discounts tightened, and the increase in the proportion of new products with high gross profit margins online;This is due to the consolidation of Kidiliz with a high gross profit margin.

2) The expense ratio increased slightly during the period: the company’s overall expense ratio increased by 2.

19 points to 21.

51%, of which the sales expense ratio increased by 1.

69pct to 16.

35%, mainly due to the company’s enhanced marketing efforts and consolidation of Kidiliz.

Management fee rate increased by 0.

33 points to 5.

64%, mainly due to the company’s increased spending on attracting talented employees and the merger of the French Kidiliz Group; due to the increase in interest expenses on consolidation, the financial expense ratio increased by 0.

18 points to -0.
48%.
3) The asset impairment in 18 years increased by 86 in ten years.

13% to 8.

6.7 billion.

Among them, bad debt losses, inventory depreciation losses, long-term equity investment impairment losses, investment real estate impairment losses, fixed asset impairment losses, and goodwill impairment losses were 18.38 million yuan and 5, respectively.

570,000 yuan, 2.57 million yuan, 2.

0.6 million yuan, 46.51 million yuan and 37.20 million yuan.

Among them, the loss of inventory price loss increased by 28 each year.

37%, and long-term equity, investment real estate, fixed assets impairment, goodwill impairment replacement for a lump sum of 18 years.

4) Increased income from financial management, etc. Expected investment income increased by 47.9 million yuan.

5) Net profit margin increased by 1.

3 points to 10.

7%, net profit growth is faster than income growth: excluding 35.55 million yuan in operating benefits brought by Kidiliz’s consolidation and negative goodwill (embodied in non-operating income subject 1).

9.3 billion), the main business is expected to achieve a net profit of 15 in 18 years.

370,000 yuan, an increase of 35 in ten years.

06%.

Consolidation has led to an increase in the size of inventories and accounts receivable, and an increase in the impact of expenses and expenditures. The net cash flow from operating activities has been significant.

1) At the end of 18, the company’s inventory scale increased by 85.

27% to 44.

US $ 1.7 billion, mainly due to the increase in sales and the corresponding increase in stocks and the merger and transfer to the inventory of the Kidiliz Group.

2) At the end of 18, the scale of accounts receivable of the company increased by 37.

30% to 19.

US $ 5.3 billion, mainly due to the merger and transfer of accounts receivable to the Kidditz Group 3) Net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 56.

41% to 9.

5.5 billion.

Among them, the net net increase in cash from operating activities increased by 40% per year, mainly due to the increase in business growth, leasing fees, advertising expenses, transportation and miscellaneous expenses, and service fees, as well as the merger of the French KIDILIZ Group.

Profit forecast and investment suggestions: The company’s casual wear and children’s wear business is operating steadily with continuous improvement in product power improvement, supply chain efficiency improvement, channel structure optimization and other aspects.

TCP, Kidiliz and Balla brand play complementary roles in brand positioning and customer base, and have integrated value in product development, international market operations and global procurement.

In a weak market environment, the company, as a leader in mass leisure and children’s wear, has a sustainable and stable growth alternative for the main business. However, considering that Kidiliz has not yet turned a deficit, it is expected that the net profit performance in 19 years will be less than revenue.

It is expected that EPS for 2019-2021 will be 0.

69, 0.

80 and 0.

92 yuan, the current total market value of 29.3 billion, corresponding to 19PE15.

6X, not high estimate, maintain investment rating of “Highly Recommended-A”.

Risk warning: terminal consumption continues to weaken, the risk of increased inventory, the performance risk of the acquisition company.

Industrial Bank (601166): The Truth and Misunderstanding of Profit Decline

Industrial Bank (601166): The Truth and Misunderstanding of Profit Decline

杭州夜生活网This report reads: The Industrial Bank ‘s interim profit growth was higher than expected due to the increase in provisioning by leading banks in all of their loans that were overdue for more than 60 days.

If normal release of net profit growth rate is available from now 6.

6% increase by 4.

9 to 11 pieces.

5%.

Investment Highlights: Investment Recommendations: Maintain forecast for 19/20/21 net profit growth.

01% / 10.

01% / 11.

04%, corresponding to EPS 3.

05/3.

36/3.

74 yuan, BVPS23.

53/26.

15/28.

69 yuan, the current price corresponds to 5.

63/5.

10/4.

59 times PE, 0.

73/0.

66/0.

60 times PB.

Accounting adjustments do not change the value of the company, and continue to be optimistic about the investment value of Industrial Bank (the cheapest bank stock in the outstanding bank 北京养生会所 formation) with a target price of 25.

20 yuan, corresponding to 1 in 19 years.

07 times PB, 47% of current price space, increase holdings.

The trend of bad expectations seriously affects the logical context.

All loans that are overdue for more than 60 days are counted as non-performing → non-performing increase sharply → non-performing rate soaring → increase write-off → stabilize non-performing rate → increase provisioning → erosion of profits.

As a result of the increase in write-offs that would consume provisions, the increase in provisions did not lead to improvements in indicators of bad provision coverage and loan-to-loan ratios, but erosion of profits occurred.

There are two major misunderstandings in market interpretation.

The first is to explain the increase in bad generating script as a significant deterioration in the quality of real assets, but in fact the result of the bad identification policy tending to be serious; the second is that the increase in provisions does not bring a provision indicator (bad provision coverage ratio)And the loan-to-loan ratio) misunderstood as the real profit did not meet expectations, in fact, it actively managed accounting profits.

Restore the bad and profit of normal conditions.

If the original bad identification standard is maintained, the 19H1 bad production rate will return to the 1 reported.

61% down 52bp to 1.

09%, compared with the same period in 2018 1.

06.
Basically flat, the bad generation gradually worsened; if released normally, the net profit growth rate of the interim return to the mother is comparable to the 6.
.

6% increase by 4.

9 to 11 pieces.
5%, compared with 11 disclosed in a quarterly report.

4% was flat.
Risk Warning: Economic Stall, Bad Outbreak

Tianfeng Macro: Expects to calm down in March when liquidity tightens slightly

Tianfeng Macro: Expects to calm down in March when liquidity tightens slightly

Source: Song Xuetao’s original title “March Liquidity Preview: Need to be calm when mad (Tianfeng Macro Song Xuetao)”, the rise of A shares since the beginning of the rainbow, can benefit from policy-driven risk compensation and repair, but also received overseas fundsContinued inflows and continued loose support from domestic funds.

With fundamentals still in a semi-vacuum period, policy and funding are key factors in determining market sustainability.

From the perspective of market sustainability, we believe that we should pay reasonable attention to the liquidity situation of the domestic currency market for three months.

In March, liquidity is expected to tighten slightly from January to February, returning to the level of the fourth quarter of 2018, and gradually improving.

  First, why should we pay attention to the funding situation in March?

  Since the beginning of the year, A shares have risen like a rainbow.

The improvement in market performance is due to the supplementary repair of risks promoted by policies-intensive hedging policies have been implemented, structural reforms have been introduced, and Sino-U.S. Trade negotiations have eased significantly; and they have also suffered from the continuous transfer of overseas funds and the continued easing of domestic fundssupport.
With fundamentals (macro data and company financial reports) still in a semi-vacuum period, policy and funding are key factors that determine market sustainability.

  For the time being, the policy side is temporarily worry-free under the care of the two sessions and the better Sino-U.S. Negotiations, while the capital side has seen a significant rise in capital gains in the last few trading days of February: the pledged repo rate between banks and deposits (DR007) and Interbank Offered Rate (SHIBOR 1W) have increased by 42bp / 61bp in the last 9 trading days.

Therefore, from the perspective of market sustainability, although there is no strong correlation between the money market interest rate and the stock market, the stock market’s rise or fall often occurs when the money market interest rate is too high or too low, so it is feasible toThe liquidity situation of the domestic currency market remained rationally watched.
Figure 1: Continuous liquidity tightening since mid-February (%) Source: WIND, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute II. How big is the liquidity gap in March?

  As for cash withdrawals, it is estimated that 300 billion yuan will be invested in liquidity.

In March, the effect of the Spring Festival gradually subsided, and the scale of cash to deposit conversion was significantly weakened compared with January to February.

With reference to historical conditions and the time of the Spring Festival this year, M0 is expected to decrease by about 300 billion in March from the previous month.

  In terms of financial funding, it is estimated that the liquidity will be 700-850 billion.

March is the month of fiscal investment.

In the first quarter, the demand for steady economic growth was relatively reduced. In November 2018, the Ministry of Finance issued a number of notices on the transfer of central and local payments in advance, gradually opening up the year to accelerate the progress of fiscal expenditure.

Therefore, it is expected that the progress of fiscal capital investment in the first quarter of this year will be advanced and strengthened. With reference to recent years, it is expected that a net investment of 700-850 billion yuan will be made in March.

  In terms of monetary policy tools, 700 billion yuan of liquidity is expected to be withdrawn.

On March 7th and 16th, MLF expired 104.5 billion / 327 billion, and the reverse repurchase in the first half of March totaled 260 billion.

After the aggregation, the stock monetary policy instruments in March expired a total of 691.5 billion yuan, concentrated in the middle and early March.

  As for interest rate debt, it is expected that liquidity will be 400-500 billion.

Local debt will continue to be issued at high speed in March. We estimated in the annual report “Winning the War: China’s Macroeconomic and Strategic Outlook 2019” that increasing local government debt in 2019 can replace 2.

85 trillion, currently it may be around 3 trillion.

According to the assumption that most of the additional debt issuance is completed before the fourth quarter and 70% issuance in the first and second quarters, considering that approximately 770 billion has been issued from January to February, it is expected that new local debt will be issued in March from 300 to 400 billion.

Coupled with government bonds and government bonds, the net financing scale of interest rate bonds in March is estimated to be 400-500 billion.

  Taken together, the liquidity gap in March was about 150 billion yuan. After two reductions in one month, there was no obvious liquidity gap in the capital market.

  III. March liquidity forecast: The capital interest rate center rose slightly, and the change increased. The forward-looking liquidity gap cannot clearly point to the subsequent tightening of liquidity, because the liquidity environment is basically a marginal change in monetary policy.

For example, one month before the RRR cut, we calculated that the pre-holiday liquidity gap exceeded 3 trillion, but after continuous RRR cuts and open market operation net hedging, the January interbank deposit pledged repo rate (DR007) replaced 2017.The lowest level since January.

  Although the current economic fundamentals do not support the direction adjustment of monetary policy, the probability of further easing is also relatively small.

In March, liquidity is expected to tighten slightly from January to February, returning to the level of the fourth quarter of 2018, and gradually improving.

  This issue can be viewed from several perspectives.

  First, money market liquidity has been too loose in the past two months.

DR007 has fallen back to the level of September 2016, which is only 12bps from the lowest point, and since January, DR007 has a 7-day reverse repo rate (2.

55%), 南宁桑拿 so the liquidity level of the currency market in the past 2 months is even more accommodative than in the 2016 “asset shortage”.

In the process of interest rate marketization, in order to ensure the effectiveness of the interest rate corridor, money market interest rates have been re-extended to break through the borders and boundaries. Therefore, it is necessary to gradually reduce liquidity or reduce policy interest rates (monetary market interest rate reduction).

At present, before the Federal Reserve ‘s interest rate meeting on March 21, it is clear that the probability of interest rate cuts in the domestic money market is not high. Therefore, the DR007 hub in March may pick up from January to February, which is close to the level of the fourth quarter of 2018.
Figure 2: Interbank liquidity levels from January to February are higher than in the first half of 2016 (%) Source: WIND, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute Second, monetary policy enters the period of effect observation.In the overall budget, the growth rate of social financing rebounded in January, and there is not much room for the current policy to fall back. It is expected that the growth rate of social financing will run in a narrow range between 10% and 11% for most of the time. Although the rebound is not significant, butOverall higher than in the second half of 2018.

Price budget. The rapid decline of the money market interest rate in this round started in the second quarter of 2018, and the bill financing interest rate basically fell simultaneously, to only three in the fourth quarter.

84%, which also brought the problem of structural deposit arbitrage; the general loan interest rate has started to decline from 4 quarters, and whether it can continue to decline remains to be further observed; the policy intervention of personal housing loan interest rates has been stronger, since the first quarter of 2017It continues to rise, and it is expected that there will be downward space in the future.

  Therefore, after experiencing loose liquidity since the beginning of the year, the return of monetary policy from the money market to the real economy has entered an observation period. It is unlikely that monetary policy will be further relaxed until the data are clear.

Figure 3: Conversion of money market interest rate to mortgage interest rate (the length of the SHIBOR sample interval, which can be approximated as DR007) (%) Data source: WIND, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute Third, affected by regulatory crackdown on arbitrage, the net value of February billsThe financing ranking dropped significantly in January.

At the State Council meeting on February 20, the leadership paid particular attention to the issue of capital idling. The relevant speech also mentioned the need to control capital idling and combat arbitrage.

According to the data of the Shanghai Bills Exchange, the net acceptance of commercial bills (including commercial and silver bills) in February is estimated to be -21.7 billion, down by 107.6 billion and 652 billion from January and December last year, respectively.The decline was also higher than in previous years.

Figure 4: Comparison of annual growth rates of net acceptances and balances of commercial bills. Data source: WIND, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute. Fourth, monetary policy is subject to supplementary restrictions on terms of trade.

The conclusion of the China-US trade agreement may have an important impact on the RMB exchange rate and domestic current account balances. The RMB exchange rate lacks flexibility to depreciate and even needs to appreciate. After expanding imports, the trade surplus in goods narrows, and the current account may shift from a surplus to a deficit.

Therefore, the supplementary terms of trade constrain the easing space for domestic monetary policy to form an overlap. Further easing is likely to wait until the Federal Reserve ‘s monetary policy changes first.

  In summary, for short-term liquidity, we believe that the three-month capital interest rate hub will rise and increase. Therefore, we recommend that you rationally observe the impact of monetary policy attitudes on liquidity, and you need to calm down when you are crazy; for medium liquidity environments,We are still more optimistic until fundamentally there has been a noticeable steady growth.

In addition, “deepening financial supply-side reforms” requires both a strong capital market and a stable low interest rate environment.

  Risks suggest that Fed ‘s policy shift is not as good as expected; China-US trade talks are not progressing as expected

US Jim (002621): The company changed its name to US Jim ‘s early education track

US Jim (002621): The company changed its name to US Jim ‘s early education track
2018 Annual Report: The company achieved operating income in 20182.6.5 billion (+ 49% YoY).78%), net profit attributable to mother 0.3.2 billion (+ 71% year-on-year.90%), net profit margin 12.08% (+ 1% year-on-year.91pct) deducting non-net profit is 0.1.5 billion.The 2018 annual budget equity incentive plan corresponds to 0 share payment expenses.US $ 2.5 billion. If this factor is excluded, its net profit is attributable to the parent.5.7 billion (+208 compared to the same period last year).94%).The report completed the completion of the US Jim acquisition, forming a dual industry of education and manufacturing. The education business will become the company’s main profit contribution in the future. Profit distribution plan: The company’s total share capital is 347,595,000, and a cash dividend of 0 for every 10 shares is distributed to all shareholders.20 yuan, 7 capital shares for every 10 shares transferred to all shareholders with capital reserve. The manufacturing business grew steadily, and profitability was further improved.Revenue in 20181.5.9 billion (+ 24% year-on-year.53%), gross profit margin 44.03% (+16.48pct).The company is currently one of the largest double-wall corrugated pipe manufacturing equipment suppliers in China with the largest scale, the most complete varieties, and the complete production process. The company officially changed its name to US Jim, and in 2018 US Jim over-performed performance betting.The company completed its industrial and commercial registration on April 17, 2019 and obtained a business license and changed its company’s short name US Jim. US Jim achieved operating income in 20183.6.2 billion, net profit attributable to mothers1.91 ppm, net profit margin 52.76%.As of the end of 2018, there were 434 early education centers and 91 new stores were added. Meijim consolidated in December 2018, so Meijim achieved 0 operating income within the scope of the consolidated statement.33 ppm, accounting for 12 of the company’s consolidated operating income.44%, achieving a net profit of 0.22 trillion, accounting for 55 of the company’s consolidated net profit.34%. Kaide Education’s profitability has gradually improved. In 2018, Kaide achieved zero operating income.6.8 billion, net profit attributable to mother 0.29 trillion, complete performance betting.In Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, there are 7 directly-operated teaching centers, which are industry-leading in terms of training service quality and outstanding teacher reserves. In 2019, we will continue to deepen the education business, rapidly promote the joining and direct management of US Jim, and continuously improve the profitability of Kade Education.The early education industry is currently in a low-leakage rate and the rapid growth stage of the initial formation of early education consumption awareness. As the leader of the domestic early education industry, Meijim ranks in the top two nationwide in terms of brand power. It 重庆耍耍网 is mainly engaged in the direct operation and authorized operation of early education centers.In some first-, second-, and third-tier cities, the penetration rate is still at a certain level.In the future, “Jim Jim” will take a step forward in ensuring quality, a rich product system, and accelerate the development of online products. At the same time, it will continue to establish new direct-operated stores and franchise stores offline.At the same time, actively expand overseas markets such as India, Russia, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan to increase market share. Profit forecast: The company is optimistic about the quality track of the early education industry where the company is located, and its future growth distance is determined. As a key industry brand, Meijim has obvious advantages in the expansion of its first, second 深圳桑拿网 and third lines, and is expected to be in a rapid development stage in the future.Taking into account the consolidation of US Jim’s performance in 2019, the company’s US Jim + Kade education business will contribute significantly to profits, and it is estimated that the net profit for 2019-2020 will be approximately 1.75, 1.980,000 yuan, given an “overweight” rating. Risk warning: Joining expansion is blocked; early education industry policy supervision, industry competition is intensifying.

Huaxing Yuanchuang (688001): Leading domestic testing equipment supplier fully benefits industry growth

Huaxing Yuanchuang (688001): Leading domestic testing equipment supplier fully benefits industry growth

Report Summary: The company is a leading domestic supplier of testing equipment and systems.

The company’s testing products are mainly testing equipment in the field of flat panel display and integrated circuit. The flat panel display field is the company’s main source of income at this stage, and its revenue in 16-18 years is 5/13.

5/9.

7 yuan, after the smooth growth of 39.

In the integrated circuit field, the revenue for the 16-18 years was 850/113/385 million yuan, with a compound growth rate of 110%. In the 18 years, the automotive electronics field achieved 11.08 million yuan in revenue, which was the revenue of the new field.

The company has been cultivating in the field of detection for many years, has core technology in the field of detection signals and image algorithms, and has both design and manufacturing capabilities of supporting precision components. It is a leading domestic supplier of detection equipment and systems.

  The flat-panel display sector benefiting from the capital expenditure of downstream panel companies will still maintain a high growth rate.

According to the statistics of the commencement of production of our downstream production lines, the investment amount of high-generation LCD and OLED production lines in 18 years was 197.5 billion yuan, the investment amount in 19 years was 2258 trillion, and the corresponding testing equipment space was 132/154 trillion for 14 years.

3%.

High-generation LCD production lines, especially the new OLED production lines, are more stringent in their production processes, achieve 南京夜生活网 high-yield production defects, and benefit excellent equipment manufacturers with rich detection technology reserves and strong product strength.

  Broad market space in semiconductor testing.

From the perspective of the semiconductor industry market size, the overall development of the global market has become stable, while the corresponding Chinese semiconductor industry market size has shown an explosive growth trend, which will bring a broad market space to the equipment side.

According to statistics, the number of global semiconductor equipment reached USD 64.5 billion in 2018, of which domestic semiconductor equipment was set at USD 13.1 billion, occupying 20% of the global market space.

The company actively researches and develops detection technology in the field of integrated circuits, and some products have 重庆耍耍网 been sold in batches. It is expected to seize the opportunity of domestic equipment demand explosion and bring long-term development to the company.

  Earnings forecast: We expect the company to achieve operating revenues of 12 in 19-21.

79/16.

98/22.

6.3 billion yuan; net profit attributable to mothers is 2.

93/3.

88/5.

1.6 billion, based on total shares after issuance 4.

Measured at 01 billion shares, EPS is 0.

73 yuan, 0.

97 yuan and 1.

29 yuan, at the issue price of 24.

Calculated at 26 yuan, the corresponding PE is 33X, 25X and 19X.

Covered for the first time and given a “Recommended” rating.

  Risk warning: the competition in the testing equipment market is intensifying, and the progress of semiconductor equipment exceeds expectations.

Sunlord Electronics (002138): Performance meets expectations Expected rebound in second half

Sunlord Electronics (002138): Performance meets expectations Expected rebound in second half
Event: The company released its semi-annual report for 2019 and achieved operating income of approximately 12 in 19H1.17 ppm, a ten-year increase of 7.77%; net profit attributable to mother is about 1.95 ppm, a decrease of 13 per year.80%; net profit after deduction is about 1.8.2 billion, down 4 each year.95%.  Opinion: The performance is in line with expectations, and the performance in the second half of the year is expected to rebound. The company’s 19H1 revenue will grow even longer at 7.77%, basically in line with expectations, of which 5G-related communications business and automotive electronics business maintained high growth.Considering the high base brought by the price increase of the 18Q2 passive component industry, we believe that the company’s actual operating situation in 19Q2 is still better.The company’s gross profit margin in 19Q2 was 35.65%, basically unchanged for a year, an increase of 0 from the previous month.87pct, profitability increased steadily.R & D expenses in the first half of the year 6.92%, increase by 1 every year.56pct, the company is currently in continuous research and development in automotive electronics, filters, magnetic materials, sensors, high-end precision inductors, precision ceramics and other fields; the company’s financial expenses in the first half of the year, of which exchange losses reached 664.190 thousand yuan, in the first half of 2018 it was 535 exchange gains.At the same time, the interest expense on loans increased by 455 over the same period in 2018.430,000 yuan.  In addition, the company generated a one-time distribution income of 25.5 million yuan in the first half of 2018, but no such income in 2019, which is also an important reason for the negative growth of the company’s Q2 performance.  The company’s long-term equity investment increased by 72 in the first half of the year.17%, mainly due to the company’s participation in Shenzhen Baoteng Sunlord Ventures (Limited Partnership), which will focus on investing in companies in related industry chains; the company’s intangible assets increased by 68 in the first half of the year.01%, mainly due to the company’s acquisition of land use rights for the Shanghai base; the company’s repeated short-term and long-term average increases in the first half of the year, mainly due to the company’s daily operating needs increased.  Overall, we believe that the company’s first half of the year is in the stage of future expansion, leading to short-term internal R & D expansion. At the same time, exchange losses and investment gains have also weighed on the company’s first half performance.Judging from the actual operating conditions, the company’s performance in the first half of the year is in a stable and good trend.Looking forward to the second half of the year, we believe that the high base effect is expected to improve, and the restructuring company’s business in communications and automotive is making good progress, which is expected to drive the company’s performance to rebound significantly in the second half of the year.  Inductor main customers are high quality, 5G: Application of new space Inductor is the main business of Sunlord Electronics. In addition, the company ranks in the forefront of the industry in terms of market share, and its technology has reached the domestic leading level. The small size 0201 has become the company’s main product model, The most advanced 01005 products have also achieved mass production.  In 2018, the company made important progress among major domestic mobile phone brand customers and newly entered the supply chain of listed manufacturers.According to industry practice, there will be more sharing among manufacturers entering the supply chain in the initial stage, but if they perform well in subsequent cooperation, it is expected to steadily increase their share.The company has a long-term accumulation in the field of inductance, product quality and supply capacity to maintain first-class, has been a long-term partner of top manufacturers such as Huawei.With a consistently excellent supply capacity, we expect the company to usher in further enhancement of sharing in 2019, driving the continued healthy development of the main industry.  2019 is the first year of 5G commercial use, and large-scale base station construction will begin in the second half of 2019.Due to the continuous increase of communication coaxial, the demand for filtering will increase, and the inductance will also increase greatly.In fact, the applicable space in mobile terminals such as mobile phones is getting smaller and smaller, and the requirements for miniaturization of inductors are getting higher and higher. We expect that the latest 01005 inductors will promote the transmission of 5G expansion and rapid penetration, which will bring the average unit price of inductors.Promotion.The 01005 inductor is manufactured using a photolithography process, which is very different from the existing process, and the technical barriers have been greatly increased, which will ensure that manufacturers who master this process can obtain better profitability.  The rapid volume of automotive electronics has become a performance growth. In the field of automotive electronics, the new power company can simultaneously provide a variety of components 杭州桑拿 such as common-mode lead current transformers for vehicles, power inductors, transformers, wireless charging coils, antennas and protection devices.In order to achieve synergy, it is currently in a period of rapid volume.  The company’s automotive electronics business revenue in the first half of the year increased by 429.97%, to achieve stable supply in large quantities.At present, the company’s automotive electronics has been an important supplier for BOSCH, VALEO, Denso, Tesla, CATL, Koboda and other manufacturers, of which CATL and Koboda are the company’s second major customers in the second quarter of 2019.At present, the company’s reversing radar transformer has achieved 100 million zero defects on the line, becoming some benchmark; BMS transformers for electric vehicles have solved EMC problems in the displacement industry for many years and reduced costs; the performance of the third-generation power inductors has surpassed existing products, The technical strength has reached a whole new level.  Automotive electronic transformers are the main products of the company’s automotive electronics.In 2013 and 2016, the company decided to increase and increase the capacity of electronic transformers twice, and the two additional capacities were 40 million units / year and 2 respectively.5.4 billion per year.Due to the rapid increase in penetration of electric and hybrid vehicles, the demand for electronic transformers is increasing, and the industry space is growing rapidly.The company’s electronic transformers focus on developing automotive applications and are expected to benefit from the rapid development of the industry and help the company’s rapid growth in the future.  Profit forecast, forecasting and rating companies are the leading manufacturers in the field of chip inductors. The capacity of inductors is maintained at a high level, and the capacity will continue to increase and expand in the future.At the same time, the company actively explores new products such as electronic transformers, wireless charging, ceramic back covers, microwave devices, and PCBs. These new products have broad market prospects and are expected to help the company’s rapid growth in the future.We maintain the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to be 0.66/0.81/1.00 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.  Risk Warning: The downstream demand of the inductor is lower than expected; the downstream demand of the new product is lower than expected; the new product technology research and development and market expansion are lower than expected.

Zhaoyi Innovation (603986) Company Review: Changxin Storage Progress Exceeds Expectations to Expand New Growth Space

Zhaoyi Innovation (603986) Company Review: Changxin Storage Progress Exceeds Expectations to Expand New Growth Space

I. Overview of the event Recently, according to Hefei Industry Investment Group, “Anhui Daily”, recently, Changxin Storage Dynamic Random Access Memory Chip (DRAM) project was put into production; after customer verification, Changxin Storage 10nm first-generation 8Gb DDR4 DRAMProduct performance is up to standard, and customers are satisfied with the verification results.

It is expected that by the end of this year, the first chips will enter the hands of customers.

  Second, analysis and 夜来香体验网 judgment of Hefei Changxin ahead of the expected production in advance The market expects that Hefei Changxin can achieve mass production in Q4, but on September 20th, the Changxin 12-inch memory memory chip independent manufacturing project was announced for production.The first generation of 8Gb DDR4 synchronized with the international mainstream DRAM products has been verified by large domestic and foreign customers and officially delivered by the end of this year.

  Changxin will become the main storage foundry in China. Changxin ‘s 12-inch wafer processing and manufacturing base project has a total investment of 1,500 trillion yuan. It will be carried out in three phases./month.

DRAM accounts for 56% of the memory market share, and the US $ 100 billion market. China is the world’s largest market, but 95% is replaced by Samsung, Hynix, and Micron. The commissioning of the Changxin DRAM project marks the independent production capacity of strategic component DRAM.

  Changxin provides important assistance for the development of Zhaoyi. Hefei Changxin was jointly funded by Hefei Industry Investment and Zhaoyi Innovation. Zhu Yiming, chairman of Zhaoyi, is also the chairman and chief executive officer of Hefei Changxin.Easy Flash products formed a combination of two swords, from 2.5 billion US dollars Nor into the 100 billion US dollars DRAM market.

  Third, investment advice The company is the world’s leading supplier of memory chips and MCUs, benefiting from the independent and controllable trend of semiconductors, and is one of the national memory chip strategic platforms.

Due to NOR Flash’s funding and job hunting, the company cut into major international customers, and the domestic substitution of chips accelerated. Considering the impact of the acquisition of Shanghai Siliwei, we have revised the company’s performance. It is estimated that the EPS in 19/20/21 will be 2 respectively.

20/3.

34/4.

21 yuan, corresponding PE is 74X / 49X / 39X.

The reference SW semiconductor industry PE is estimated to be 179 times, maintaining the “recommended” level.

  4. Risk warnings: 1. Price fluctuations of raw materials such as wafers; 2. Price reduction of memory chips; 3. DRAM capacity climbs less than expected.