Huadian International (600027): Coal price center drops, repairs profitability, capacity continues to expand, and performance improves
The main points of the report describe the company’s disclosure of the 2019 results pre-announcement announcement: The company expects the 2019 results to increase by 15 after the 2018 restatement.
500 million to 19.
0 million yuan, an increase of about 90% -110% a year.
Incident Review Capacity expansion or damage to power generation space, electricity and revenue scale is expected to be stable.
In 2019, the growth of national power demand tended to be weak, which resulted in a sudden change in the production rhythm of power generation. From January to December, the national power generation reached 714.2 billion kWh, only an increase of 3.
Among them, due to the compression of the protected energy in the power generation space, the annual thermal power generation capacity is only 5,1654 billion kWh, a longer growth1.
9%, the growth rate is reduced by 4 every year.
According to the latest data, from January to November in Shandong Province, where the company’s large number of units are located, the thermal power generation capacity is alternately placed.
8% to 470.2 billion kilowatt-hours, meanwhile, the average utilization hours of thermal power in the province are reduced every 240 hours to 4041 hours.
Considering that the company will successively put into production a number of projects in Laizhou # 3, # 4 and other multi-kilowatt units in 2019, the expansion of capacity may play a positive role in the company’s electricity and revenue scale.
The central price of coal continued to fall, and profitability accelerated repair.
From the perspective of fuel cost, the central price of coal in the market will steadily move down in 2019, so that the Shandong coal price index will reach 559.
98 yuan tons, a decrease of 45 compared with the same period last year.
33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 7.
49%, a decline exceeding the national average.
Among them, in the second half of the company’s intensive production of large-capacity thermal power units, the coal price index of Shandong Province continued to drop 48.
79 yuan / ton, a decrease of 8.
16%, which is conducive to the new unit to contribute more profits.
At this point in time, we believe that the focus of thermal power performance improvement has shifted to cost improvement, and the company’s own cumulative expansion will help accelerate profit recovery: the company is expected to achieve profitability in 2019.
800 million to 36.
30,000 yuan, an annual increase of 90% -110%.
The Group’s asset deposits are expected, and the extension development is worth looking forward to.
As of the end of 2018, the non-listed conventional energy power generation assets of the group-controlled power generation enterprises have been put into operation: Huadian Jiangsu Energy, Huadian Xinjiang Power and other 15 internal companies or branches.
After excluding Wuchang Thermal Power, which has been injected into Huadian International on September 1, 2019, the remaining 14 companies have put into operation an installed capacity of 44.65 million kilowatts, and have approved an installed capacity of 3.5 million kilowatts.Listed companies, in the long run, the scale of assets will continue to increase.
Investment suggestions and estimates: Based on the company’s latest announcement, we adjust the company’s profit forecast: It is expected that the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 will be 0.
35 yuan, 0.
46 yuan and 0.
56 yuan, the corresponding PE 武汉夜网论坛 is 10 respectively.
40 times, 7.
85 times and 6.
Considering that the company’s current profitability is expected to continue to rise, maintain the company’s “Buy” rating.
Risk Warning: 1.
Risk of deterioration of power supply and demand environment; 2.
Coal prices are at risk of unsustainable growth.